Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 0.817416 0.951059 1.099183 1.275474 1.479536 1.708295 1.984205
2025-02-02 0.633558 0.821974 1.053814 1.359804 1.752897 2.240863 2.892779
2025-02-09 0.521037 0.730163 1.007197 1.400487 1.944112 2.668901 3.708994
2025-02-16 0.438984 0.655162 0.959305 1.417493 2.089647 3.039210 4.483082
2025-02-23 0.374469 0.590270 0.910138 1.417433 2.200875 3.364308 5.223838
2025-03-02 0.321655 0.532536 0.860087 1.404062 2.283691 3.649531 5.931921
2025-03-09 0.282190 0.488651 0.823343 1.403045 2.380563 3.961235 6.711664
2025-03-16 0.240979 0.435195 0.762873 1.353158 2.388197 4.126327 7.266772
2025-03-23 0.229821 0.431328 0.783968 1.442448 2.639011 4.718821 8.607766
2025-03-30 0.200749 0.391059 0.736083 1.403076 2.657560 4.911634 9.267963
2025-04-06 0.175135 0.353501 0.687949 1.356216 2.654945 5.063307 9.866145
2025-04-13 0.153914 0.321405 0.645735 1.314555 2.655611 5.218335 10.483965
2025-04-20 0.142335 0.307465 0.637644 1.340247 2.793490 5.654754 11.710714
2025-04-27 0.138135 0.308300 0.659215 1.428870 3.069072 6.392381 13.629381
2025-05-04 0.129818 0.299113 0.658900 1.471588 3.254558 6.969207 15.285145
2025-05-11 0.120221 0.285705 0.647815 1.489444 3.388640 7.453621 16.800533
2025-05-18 0.110291 0.270095 0.629823 1.489381 3.482644 7.861748 18.194731
2025-05-25 0.100452 0.253311 0.607036 1.475342 3.543021 8.202305 19.476131
2025-06-01 0.092547 0.240090 0.590751 1.474274 3.632806 8.617376 20.974210
2025-06-08 0.082342 0.219720 0.554996 1.421894 3.594313 8.734101 21.785220
2025-06-15 0.081499 0.223181 0.577493 1.515645 3.922111 9.743711 24.854974
2025-06-22 0.073440 0.206565 0.547953 1.474307 3.908281 9.932770 25.928634
2025-06-29 0.065852 0.190158 0.516901 1.425104 3.868301 10.052859 26.841952